San Diego Market Snapshot January 2026

January is traditionally a transitional month in San Diego real estate, where early indicators begin to signal how the year may unfold. The data coming out of January 2026 points to a market that is stabilizing rather than accelerating, with clear segmentation between property types and pricing tiers.

Pricing Overview

As of January 2026, the median sold price for homes in the City of San Diego sits around $1,050,000, while median list prices remain higher, closer to $1.25M to $1.3M, reflecting continued seller optimism.

On a year over year basis, pricing is relatively flat to slightly positive depending on neighborhood and housing type. This suggests price support remains strong, but upward momentum is constrained by affordability and rate sensitivity.

Key takeaway: prices are holding, not surging.

Inventory and Supply

Inventory increased in January, which is consistent with normal seasonal behavior following the holidays.

• Active listings rose steadily through the month
• Condo and townhome inventory is up approximately 20 to 25% year over year
• Detached home inventory remains tighter relative to historical norms

Despite the increase, overall supply remains below the 5 to 6 month level that would indicate a fully balanced market. Current conditions still favor sellers in well priced segments, while buyers gain leverage in oversupplied submarkets.

Days on Market and Buyer Behavior

Market speed continues to normalize.

• Well priced detached homes are still going pending quickly, often in under 10 days
• Broader market medians range from 35 to 50 days on market, depending on property type
• Condos and attached units show longer decision cycles and higher price sensitivity

This bifurcation highlights a key analytical point: demand exists, but it is selective.

Sale to List Price Dynamics

January data shows a clear shift away from universal bidding wars.

• Roughly 30% of homes sold at or above list price
• The majority of transactions closed below list, particularly for condos and homes that started above market

Pricing accuracy is now a primary determinant of velocity. Overpricing is being punished more quickly than in previous years.

Affordability Constraints

Affordability remains the dominant macro constraint in the San Diego market.

• Fewer than 2% of listings are affordable to a median income household
• Estimated income needed to purchase the median priced home exceeds $220,000 annually

Even with mortgage rates easing slightly compared to late 2024 and early 2025, monthly payment pressure remains high, limiting buyer pools and keeping demand concentrated among high income households, dual earners, and equity driven buyers.

Segment Performance

Detached Homes
• Stronger price stability
• Faster absorption when priced correctly
• Lower inventory relative to demand

Condos and Townhomes
• Higher inventory levels
• Longer days on market
• Increased buyer negotiation power

This divergence is important for both buyers and sellers when setting expectations.

January Market Summary

From an analytical standpoint, January 2026 reflects a controlled, data driven market environment.

• Prices are stable, not accelerating
• Inventory is rising seasonally, not flooding the market
• Buyers are active but selective
• Affordability remains the key limiting factor
• Pricing strategy matters more than ever